Can Sacramento protect homecourt and get past the first game of the Play-In?
Well, this certainly wasn’t the season the Sacramento Kings had hoped for. After a tumultuous and inconsistent season, the Kings finished with a 40-42 record, good for ninth in the Wester Conference. They find themselves hosting the 10th-seeded Dallas Mavericks, another team that did not see themselves in Play-in territory when this season started.
After plenty of change and roster moves, the Kings are in the exact same spot as they were at the end of the last season. They need to win back-to-back games to qualify for just their second Playoff appearance since 2006. Their opponents are a Mavericks team that is now led by Anthony Davis. Kyrie Irving will miss the game as he was ruled out for the season after suffering a torn ACL against the Kings on March 3rd. While Dallas has been brutally injured in the final portion of the season, with several different players accumulating injuries sporadically, they come into Wednesday night’s matchup “”just” without”only” missing Irving and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Brandon Williams, who came on well late in the season for the Mavericks, is listed as day-to-day. Sacramento will be missing a couple key bench pieces in Malik Monk and Jake LaRavia.
The wildcard factor of this matchup is that there simply isn’t much of a sample size for what the Mavericks look like with Davis and a healthy supporting cast. Not only has Davis not played much for Dallas, but his teammates weren’t always healthy even when he was able to suit up. This means Jason Kidd is going to be able to throw different lineups and combinations of players that the Kings will not have been able to prepare and study game tape for. Davis has played just 9 games for Dallas and has put up 20.0 points, 10.1 rebounds and has shot 46.1% FG and 23.3% from beyond the arc. Of course, it must be noted that Davis was coming back from injury in some of those games, and he is certainly capable of putting up even better numbers than his current averages on any given night.
While Sacramento faced major changes by swapping De’Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine, there is at least a 24-game sample size of LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis playing together. I expect Kidd to throw a lot of different bodies at Sabonis to try to disrupt his playmaking and creation. If Dallas successfully ruffles the feathers of Sabonis, it could limit Sacramento’s playmaking options and cut up the flow of their offense. DeRozan has upped his assist numbers since Fox’s departure and the Kings will likely continue to rely on him to help Sabonis out in that depart without a true point guard available for the Kings.
Besides just Davis, Sabonis may see Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively come his way tonight. If the Kings can keep their pace up in transition and even in the halfcourt offense, they should be able to get away with initiating most of their offense through Sabonis. It will also be key for the Kings’ big man to stay out of foul trouble. We could see him be tasked with guarding Davis at different moments in the game, especially since Keegan Murray may struggle with Davis’ size. The Kings can’t afford to have Sabonis sit for any extended period of time considering the size advantage the Mavericks possess.
Since March 1st, Dallas has shot just 34.1% from three. That is good for sixth worst in the entire league. It will be key for Sacramento to make sure they don’t allow for guys like Klay Thompson, PJ Washington and Max Christie to start off hot and carry some shooting momentum throughout the game. Keon Ellis will shoulder a heavy load in his attempt to lead the perimeter defense. Guys like LaVine and DeRozan will need to do their best to at least help challenge guys around the the three-point line and rotate efficiently when possible.
Speaking of the LaVine/DeRozan duo, the Kings will need at least one of those guys to bring their “A” game tonight. If LaVine and DeRozan both fail to show up, the game will be Dallas’ to lose. There have been whispers that LaVine has a reputation for failing to show up in big games – tonight is the night to dispel those rumors. He has been on fire recently, and if he can bring his best stuff tonight, the Kings may be flying out to Memphis to have a chance at obtaining the 8 seed on Friday night. DeRozan is an experienced veteran with a lot of big game experience under his belt. We’ve seen him show up and save the Kings in clutch moments time and time again this season. I’m less worried about him showing up than LaVine.
The final key point to look out for is the performance of the role players. Last year, Keegan Murray had a huge game in the 9/10 game against Golden State by dropping over 30 points and Keon Ellis had a coming out party on the national stage after he put Steph Curry in the torture chamber. The following game against the New Orleans Pelicans, Murray and Ellis had poor games and the Kings suffered as a result. The Kings can not afford for their role players to ghost tonight’s matchup. Trey Lyles has been valuable recently for Sacramento and he will need to repeat that level of play tonight, especially with his rebounding efforts. Jonas Valanciunas may see the floor quite a bit to help counter the size advantage of the Mavericks. Devin Carter may see some minutes here and there, even as a rookie in a big game, just to reprieve the starting guards and give them some moments of brief rest. Carter has been improving as of late, but it remains to be seen how he will play in the most important game of his young NBA career thus far. A good night from the bench would be a huge bonus for the Kings.
We will see whether or not tonight marks the end of the Kings season. The Kings are considered slight favorites by the betting odds, and that is probably a fair assessment. Both teams have had disappoiting seasons but Sacramento has been better whenever Sabonis is healthy, and there is not much to go off of for Dallas with all their injury problems. And we can’t forget, the Kings have a great homecourt advantage. Let’s see if the Kings can get the job done and live to fight another day.
Kings Scribe 
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